What is the basis for the survival and development of BTC?
Recently, negative information in the crypto space appears in an endless stream, especially regarding Bitcoin. News about the regulatory storm in China, Musk’s attacks, the US FBI’s statement about the hacking of bitcoin wallet private keys, increased surveillance of Japan and South Korea, etc. D. Almost every week.
A fundamental explanation of the BTC development
Negative news. Against their background, Bitcoin has become very strong. After the negative news last month, according to CoinMarketRate, the price is still in the range of 38 000–36 000 USD per coin, which is really good. Of course, there is good news, especially important news about the use of Bitcoin as a legal currency in El Salvador. The first country in the world to use the BTC as a legal currency has appeared, and this will definitely have a pretty great impact on mass adoption. But, of course, in general, there is still more negative news, and less positive news.
In such an atmosphere, there will always be people who will inevitably ask such questions: “How long can we fight the bans? Does Bitcoin have a future?” Some people have always said that there must be faith in Bitcoin. But faith cannot be born out of thin air. If you just study the history of Bitcoin over the past 12 years as a source of faith, it will not be convincing, because the environment in the world has changed, and the past history of resurrection after another death prophecy will not be repeated. A new story is being written. Current belief should start with knowledge of today’s environment, so let’s do a brief analysis of the global power classes associated with Bitcoin’s survival and development.
The first force influencing the survival and development of Bitcoin is, of course, the country. Whether it’s the Russian government, the US government, or the Chinese government, its policies have a big impact on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency circle. From the point of view of Bitcoin, the countries of the world can be divided into four classes.
- The first national class is the superpowers.
The United States is a country where the attitude to Bitcoin is twofold. Bitcoin itself was born as a result of the inflationary opposition to the US dollar, and subsequent historical practices have caused the BTC to have a “double-edged” effect on the dollar’s hegemony.
On the one hand, this is a global movement for de-dollarization, where Bitcoin plays a threatening role as a partial replacement for the US dollar, and on the other hand, since global partial de-dollarization can be a foregone conclusion, the United States will be able to manipulate and control the bulk of Bitcoin. Then the BTC can also become a vassal of the dollar, performing functions that the dollar cannot directly perform.
On a deeper level, some will also consider the possibility that the dollar will eventually lose its status as a global reserve currency, so owning and controlling Bitcoin is a good preventative measure.
Thus, the United States is generally open to Bitcoin, and the power of the ruling circles supporting Bitcoin is gradually increasing. The current trend is that they are trying to use the legal framework of the United States to try to establish control over the circulation of Bitcoins. In any case, it is with the support of some US capital that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have experienced this recent bull market wave.
- The second national class is regional powers such as China and Japan.
This class is fundamentally the opposite of Bitcoin. Their legal currency is very strong in the region and in world trade, but they always face a serious suppression of the hegemony of the US dollar. On the one hand, if you want to de-dollarize the economy, you hope that your country’s legal currency will replace the US dollar, not the reserve currency, with Bitcoin. On the other hand, Bitcoin has the effect of generating cash flows, in the form of capital flight. It is in the case of capital flight that this happens against the US dollar. So, at least for now, the impact of Bitcoin on this class of countries is more negative than positive.
- The third class is small and medium-sized countries with a good economy and an open currency.
Their attitude towards Bitcoin is evasive. The legal currency of their countries is practically worthless outside of the country. In short, monetary circulation with the outside world consists in the use of such currencies of large countries as the US dollar and the euro. If these official currencies are replaced with Bitcoin, will it have a full impact? They won’t take the initiative to accept Bitcoin because the economy is at a good level right now and they have a good life, so they don’t have to worry about it. But they will not take the initiative to oppose Bitcoin, because it has replaced the US dollar and the euro, and it is unknown what to expect in the future.
- The fourth class is backward countries or countries that are in a fierce confrontation with the United States.
Such as El Salvador and Iran. For the former, its own legal currency is essentially an unnecessary currency, and using BTC as a legal currency is better than the US dollar. The US can manipulate the dollar, and Bitcoin is, after all, a decentralized currency and cannot be manipulated. It’s as convenient as a dollar. For the latter, Bitcoin is one of the currencies that preserves its value. Due to the confrontation with the United States, the acquisition of the dollar is limited, and the storage of a certain amount of Bitcoins is the main means of confrontation.
So, in general, in terms of the class analysis of countries, most countries have the foundations to survive and develop to accept Bitcoin.
Power #2-Social classification
The power of the second category, which affects the survival and development of Bitcoin, can be considered as a social class. In terms of social class, the most important thing for Bitcoin is the distribution of wealth between two classifications: family wealth and institutional speculation.
- First social class-family capital
The distribution of family wealth should be relatively more important. There are countless rich families in the world, and the way these families manage their wealth has not changed so much from ancient times to the present day. This applies to the high cost of art or a financial mortgage for a collection of contemporary art and the value of gold. For many families, these stored values are actually a kind of security measure for family wealth when the family faces unexpected difficulties, or the collapse of economies.
There are several other ways to save money that can be used by future generations. For these families, Bitcoin is a new method of “wealth preservation” that has emerged, and because of its liquidity, stealth, and invisibility, it is in many aspects far superior to the functions of gold. The obvious trend now is that more and more families are buying a certain amount of Bitcoin as a store of value. Currently, more than 50% of Bitcoin shares are part of giant whales. The storage of family wealth is naturally more secretive, but this power will definitely be strengthened not only for rich families in the West, but also for families in other countries, especially in troubled countries. And a large number of small and medium-sized families will also have certain needs in this regard. Well, who would believe that in a difficult historical period of economic turmoil and chaos, a rich family does not have a few gold bars?
- Another social class is institutional speculation.
In fact, we know that this wave of bull market is called an “institutional bull market”. A large number of American financial institutions and large companies, led by Gray, have entered the currency circle. Their goal is, of course, financial speculation and financial management. Their funds come and go, and it is impossible to hold Bitcoin forever, but they enliven the market and allow for the use of liquidity.
When the policy is tight, some institutional funds naturally go away, and when it softens a little, the funds come in again. But in general, only if the cryptocurrency circle has an interest in the market, they will not stop entering the currency circle.
Thus, after conducting a comprehensive analysis of the two aspects-the country and society, we can clearly say that, regardless of the national or social level, Bitcoin is highly trusted by some forces, and many classes will support Bitcoin because of their interests. And the strength of the supporting class is enough to ensure the survival and development of Bitcoin.
Looking at Bitcoin with such a structure, there may be a so-called “belief” in its long-term value. What can be done against the Cue Ball, so it may be in the future advanced in attempts to crack the security of the private key (which is unlikely). But it will never be possible to achieve the suppression of any state or social force, because it is impossible to achieve unanimous opposition from the world class that wants the Bitcoin revolution to continue.