The past week was marked by the first major pullback in the price of Bitcoin, despite the influx of capital from major institutional investors and positive news.
News digest of the past week
This week’s news has not made the crypto community very happy, but it has not discouraged it either. Nothing happened that we couldn`t expect.
After the last price record above $ 57,500 and the subsequent sharp drop to $ 54,000, Bitcoin has not calmed down, and will continue its rollback, which scared the hell out of newcomers to the crypto space.
The ECB decided to fight with stablecoins in the the European Union, hysterical about the need to urgently create rules or a complete ban.
We will tell you about these and other news in our digest of the final seven days in the crypto space.
It is unlikely that we will see BTC at $ 50,000 by the end of the month
Bitcoin continues to be traded below $ 50,000, but the bulls may regain control in March. Will March be an exception to the bearish trend?
Bitcoin fell to $ 45,000 on February 26, late in the evening, before climbing above $ 48,290, and is trading at $47,259.
In the last week of February 2021, BTC fell from $ 50,000 to $ 44,000. This major correction put an end to the market euphoria. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit a one-month low of 56 after climbing above 90.
However, this significant drop in the price of BTC is considered by many analysts to be useful for continuing the bullish rally. It offers traders and investors the opportunity to purchase BTC at lower prices by buying on dips.
The risk of a bearish market takeover is very present in the short term, as Bitcoin remains unquestionably bullish in the long term — the daily RSI (14) is currently at 52, compared to 70 and 89 for the weekly and monthly RSI (14).
Michael Van de Poppe recalls that historically, March is far from optimistic for the cryptocurrency markets. In March 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020, they experienced a correction of 15% to 60%.
Van de Poppe does not rule out the possibility of a correction that could push BTC back to the $ 35–40 thousand zone.
Currently, the BTC is unlikely to close February, 2021 at levels close to its ATH, but still, the bulls are currently trying to resume their course in the short term, and there are some factors pointing to the possibility of a renewed bull rally in the coming days.
Glassnode data shows that the miner’s net position indicator turns green for the first time since December 27, 2020. Therefore, miners now prefer to accumulate BTC, rather than make a profit from them, after large sales for about 2 months in a row.
The CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Yong-joo, also reported that the number of BTC on the exchanges continues to fall. According to him, this drop is a sign that institutions continue to buy Bitcoin.
The bulls have only one day left to close the BTC this month above the 50 K $level. You may have to wait until you get $ 60,000 per BTC.
Bitcoin may undergo several fixes on the way to 200 thousand dollars, suggests Peter Brandt
Peter Brandt, an experienced trader and author of the Journal of a Commodity Professional, noted that although the price of BTC can reach $ 200,000, history shows that it is subject to massive adjustments of 30% or more.
“In the $ BTC bull market in 2015–2017, there were nine corrections exceeding 30%. There has only been one such correction since the March 2020 low, “ Brandt noted, adding, “How many more > 30% adjustments will happen before Bitcoin hits $ 200,000?”
According to a survey published by Brandt, more than 60% of the more than 15,500 respondents believe that there is a really high probability that Bitcoin will see one to six major fixes of more than 30%, before its price reaches $ 200,000.
At the same time, only 12.2% of respondents said that BTC will undergo at least seven corrections. Another 10.9% are convinced that Bitcoin is now in the lead — meaning that it is at the peak of the highest price, at least.
Meanwhile, 16.2% of users, perhaps belonging to the more bitcoin-maximalist portion, said they didn’t expect a fix on the way to $ 200,000 because it’s an opportunity to “buy a dip”.
While some users responded to the survey with skepticism, noting that “the 80% fix may be a thing of the past”, it’s hard to argue with the suggestion when looking at Bitcoin’s history, which is still relevant.
In response to this thread of tweets, crypto trader and investor Scott Melker, also known as the “Wolf of Every Street” on Twitter, reiterated that big money is not about buying or selling, but waiting.
Confirming this view, Brandt noted that he would be “happy” to buy a little more BTC if the price of the cryptocurrency is adjusted by 20% or more.
“I would be a happy buyer of any 20% of the fixes at the moment,” Brandt replied to one commenter ,” he said.
The ECB wants to create special laws regulating or even banning stablecoins
It all started with Facebook and Libra. A thunderclap in the silent space of international high finance, where GAFA dared to enter, and easily create pseudo-banking opportunities with pseudo-money.
After all, this is exactly what these naive adventurers believed: right after the official news about Libra, governments and central banks came together to ban at all costs this potential invasion of the private sector into the banking sector.
This space is regulated by institutional and traditional financial actors, and let’s face it: in their view, no other entity has the right to enter it.
However, this story is not over yet: Facebook is not leaving, central banks are watching and stepping up, cryptocurrency continues to grow, and protocols are evolving.
That’s why last week the ECB, the European Central Bank, asked European Union lawmakers to do a specific job: the ECB wants to have individual laws created for it to regulate cryptocurrency.
In particular, he expects European Union lawmakers to create a legal arsenal so that he can use the veto power to issue and distribute stablecoins in the euro area, as well as play a role in their overall oversight.
But is it really possible? What do central banks around the world fear?
Bankers around the world are concerned about the growth of cryptocurrencies, and this is a fact. One of the things they find most distasteful is stablecoins, which remain stable no matter what, either through mathematical processes or because they are backed by other national institutional currencies, so-called “fiat” currencies.
They fear that their issuance and adoption will weaken their ability to control payments, banking transactions, and even more so affect the value of national currencies.
Back in September 2020, the European Union presented plans to try to stop the evolution of cryptocurrencies. According to the plan, stablecoin issuers were forced to subject their currency to stress tests and meet capital reserve and liquidity requirements. In other words, the plan was to impose the same requirements on stablecoin issuers as on traditional financial players.
The ECB believes that its role is the only and final word on the issue of stablecoins. He said that this is the only European financial institution that can speak out about the currency, whether it is crypto or not, because payment systems fall exclusively under its competence.
Therefore, he insists that this is the only body that will be able to allow, or not allow their launch in the euro area. It must control side effects, such as inflation or payment security, that can be compromised by the launch of stablecoins.
However, since cryptocurrencies and stablecoins are a new phenomenon, this area is too little controlled. In fact, the ECB expects that the European rules will be changed as soon as possible to strengthen its prerogatives and limit any violator, whether private companies or authorities, who assess the possibility of issuing stablecoins.
In addition to the regulatory arsenal, it also wants to impose “strict liquidity requirements” on these issuers, similar to those applied to traditional banks, to help them resist in the event of significant outflows from their customers.
These measures reflect the cash reserve requirements introduced after the 2008 financial crisis, which are designed to limit the risk of a banking system collapse, and the need for states to put their hands in taxpayers ‘ pockets to bail out banks. As an extreme measure.
It also asks (since stablecoins are supported by multiple currencies) to provide end users with a direct claim to the issuer or reserve assets and redemption rights. Very, very strong restrictions that take a long time to develop and implement.
Institutions always defeat the whims of minor conquerors with rules. There is no explicit veto, but there is a hyperinflation of legal and financial obligations, an invisible veto, intangible, but so powerful.
For their part, the ECB staff are not sitting idly by. They are busy creating a new legal framework for cryptocurrencies.
All of these legal and financial restrictions requested by the ECB can be seen as legitimate, useful, necessary, useless or unrealistic, but most importantly, they slow down the enthusiasm of private creators and allow the Institution to buy time to better turn around.
This is how the ECB is working hard on its own digital euro, which it hopes to launch within the next four years. Needless to say, this digital euro will not be subject to EU regulations on stablecoins, these brazen private digital currencies.
Source: https://news.bit.team/review-of-the-crypto-space-latest-news-01-03-2021/
